Law Of Accelerating Returns
| Ray Kurzweil's hypothesis on the growth rate of technology is commonly referred to as the law of accelerating returns. This law states that the speed at which a given technology improves is exponential. In other words, each successive generation of a given technology is more advanced than the one that came before it. This law has been used to explain everything from the exponential growth of the internet to the rapid pace of Moore's Law. The law of accelerating returns is based on the idea that there is an inherent tendency for technological progress to speed up. This is because each new generation of technology builds upon the foundation of previous generations. As more and more knowledge is accumulated, it becomes easier and easier to create new technologies. This feedback loop eventually leads to an exponential increase in the rate of technological progress. The law of accelerating returns is often used to explain why the pace of technological change seems to be accelerating. It is also used to predict future trends in technology. For example, Kurzweil has used the law of accelerating returns to predict that the Singularity will occur by 2045. |
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